Zogby is showing Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) with a 14-point lead over rival Sen. HIllary Clinton (D-NY) in today’s North Carolina presidential primary and with much slimmer (and surprising) two-point lead over her in Indiana. Pollsters are never able to account for the Bradley Effect though, which is why I believe he’ll only win N.C. by about nine points (state demographics strongly favor him) and she’ll probably win Indiana by seven.
This race has been so volatile (not to mention dirty) though that it’s difficult to have an clue as to what will really happen…
3 Comments
Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI
Leave a comment
If by “able to account for the Bradley Effect”
you mean “explain” how it occurs, you should see the analysis of Andrew Kohut of the Pew Center that I cite here:
http://loomisnews.wordpress.com/2008/02/15/part-4-why-i-fear/
(ooooh, white reactionaries find Obama scary… scary… he’s a muslim, no, he’s a radical black church member, no he’s a terrorist, no HE’S BLACK, omigod, we gotta stop’em!!!)
“loomisnews,” if you’re implying that we are racist because Liberal voters tell pollsters that they’re voting for a black guy and the don’t when they’re in the privacy of the voting booth, then you need to take a course in basic logic. I’m not opposed to Obama because of his color but because of his extreme Leftist political ideology.
I’d imagine that you are not voting for McCain because you don’t like his stances on Iraq or who knows what else. I don’t sit here and accuse you of being prejudiced against old people because he would be the first person over 70 to win the White House for the first time.
It’s policy. You have your beliefs and I have mine, and we vote accordingly, so drop the race card. It’s already getting really old.
[...] May 7, 2008 — JLG Ok, so I was a little off on my predictions yesterday but I did predict Obama as the nominee well before a single primary or caucus had been held when [...]