The Lancet Report is ‘Rock Solid?’ (Update 4)

Just so you know what we’re dealing with here, I thought I might share a reader’s comment with me about Baghdad’s per capita murder rate being less than Detroit, Michigan.  “mdking” writes:

JLG, you are manipulating facts to suit your ideology! Just muster the humility for one brief moment to think that you might be wrong. You say, “That’s a murder rate that is comparable to some major American cities.”

That’s a murder rate comparable to NO American city. 5 dead a day times one year equals 1825.

New York had less than 500 murders in 2007. The LAPD reported 379 people had been killed in Los Angeles as of December 15, 2007.

You are either making your numbers up or quoting Fox News (which has said what you say). In either scenario, your powers of reason have no place in responsible debate.

“mdking” is obviously having trouble with the “PER CAPITA” part, so let’s stick with the Detroit example.  Per capita refers to the number of murders per person living in a city.  Baghdad has a population of about 7,000,000 people.  Detroit has 900,000.  So of course, Detroit has lower absolute crime rates.  That’s like saying there is less crime in Boise, Idaho than in New York City.  Thank you Captain Obvious!

The question is “PER CAPITA,” or how many murders are there PER PERSON in the city?  That’s not “manipulating facts,” as “mdking” charges.  It’s just how adults compare crime in cities that are vastly different in size.

At five per day, Bagdad would have (as ”mdking” correctly calculated) 1,825 murders in a year.  PER CAPITA, that’s one murder for every 3,835 citizens.

Now Detroit (again only about 1/7 the population of Baghdad) had 354 murders in 2006.  PER CAPITA, that’s one murder for only every 2,542 citizens or about out 1/3 higher than that of Baghdad.

“mdking” accused me of making up numbers and told me, “your powers of reason have no place in responsible debate.”  Again, Liberals love to proclaim victory and try to silence their opponents before they’ve made a coherent argument.  It helps mask the fact that they have no clue what they’re talking about.

But I’m not making anything up.  The new York Times quoted five murders per day in Baghdad (and Reuters now is reporting only four per day) and city populations and crime rates are public record.  Maybe “mdking” could try a little research before accusing me “making up [my] numbers.”  Ever use a Google search?

Again… not enough integrity to admit that our troops are doing great work on behalf of this country and not enough intellect to even explain their argument (other than quoting MoveOn.org).

Ignorance has “no place in responsible debate” either, “mdking,” though it certainly does make for a good laugh…

UPDATE: 2/18/08 11:45 a.m:  Here is “mdking’s” compelling response:

JLG, big fat lying liars like you (who are hung like cocktail franks, according to your mother) make better orators than writers. See, writing can be easily verified; whereas, with speaking, it’s difficult to track down sound bites. You should totally podcast your bull [explitive] sans transcript that way you can get away with the prevaricating.

Just because you say (or misspell) PER CAPITA a half dozen times after the fact, doesn’t clear you of being full of [expletive] out of the gate.

Podcast, dude. Do it.

Please note he does not respond to any facts (except that I misspelled “per capita” one time), but instead just calls me names.  You check and see if I’m changing anything after the fact.”

Typical…

8 Comments

  1. George Soros and his ilk have no place in rational debate.

    Cue Howard Dean scream…..”ARRGGHGHHH!”

  2. Ha… that’s funny

  3. [...] More Lies and Damn Statistics Posted on February 18, 2008 by Dan (Fitness) JLG is getting kinda goofy with the numbers game: Just so you know what we’re dealing with here, I thought I might share a [...]

  4. Alright, good post. However, there is really no way to know how many people are murdered in Baghdad, where there is clear statistics in Detroit.
    All things considered, it is sad that they can even be mentioned together.
    More reason we should be focusing on the home front

  5. Thank you Spc. Smith. I realize that it’s a bit of an inexact science, but I was using actual statistics printed in the NY Times. My point is that the country is livable again due the the hard work and sacrifice of our soldiers. I very much appreciate your service to our country, as well as your insight on these issues. Due to health problems, I was never able to wear a uniform, even though I wanted to… Thus, I have nothing but respect for those who do.

  6. It is livable. In fact some places in Baghdad look better than places in Detroit:). Your sources are viable and your post is fair and honest, although there is, in all probablity, a murder going on right now in Baghdad that no one will ever add to the statistics, but that is the Iraqi’s problem, and there police should be dealing with it… The number that I am concerned about is 3,966 killed and 29,203 wounded.

  7. Spc. Smith, I find those numbers to be very tragic and troubling as well. No doubt.

  8. [...] analysis has been done over time comparing death rates in Detroit with Baghdad, with the use of per-capita data being the critical component; [...]


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